*A note about trainer form. Trainer form is relative to both the stable and the horses chances. If Martin Pipe had a winner yesterday it does not necessarily mean he is in form. It may have been a 1/6 shot which scraped home. However another stable may have had 30 runners without a win but they could have all been 100/1 shots because they are poor horses. But if 5 of them had placed - they could be in great form.
6) Course - turning courses, left handed over jumps. Make sure the horse handles the course. This is especially true of chasers and sprinters. Sprinters in big fields that are effective over a mile are frequently unplaced around tight turns.
7) Track bias. Don't have time to go into this but this is an American concept I am investigating.....
8) Draw bias - this is obvious really. Lots of chances to back / lay horses for a place after early races have revealed a draw bias...
All of the above may be obvious - sorry if it is.
How do I use this? If I am place betting I will consider all these factors for each horse. That way I can root out the backs and the lays. I will then frame my handicap:
Horse 1: Linford Christie 3/1 rtd 100 - place odds 1.6
Horse 2: Likes it hard 3/1 rtd 97 place odds 1.6
Horse 3: I'm blind 9/2 rtd 94 place odds 1.79
Horse 4: Solid bugger 7/1 rtd 91 place odds 2.2
Horses 5 - 8 : rtd 84 and below...
Here you can see solid bugger is rtd the lowest of all 3 horses. 4th best chance of a place. But he is effective under conditions and in form. Linford is the best but has doubts at this trip, Likes it hard is doubtful on this soft ground plus he is a front runner as is I'm blind and they could grinfd each other into the ground, I'm blind is in first time blinkers and will probably oull hard and has to compete with Linford for the lead.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF ALL 3 RUNNING UP TO FORM. BY backing Solid bugger you are effectively getting over evens on ojne of the first 3 horses running a few pounds below form. This is a great bet which is not immediately apparent from the win odds.
This is fairly common. The top rated horses will usually top the market despite the concerns mentioned above. The thing is if they get the trip / if they handle the ground / if blinkers improve them the odds accurately reflect ehir chance of WINNING. However the odds on all 3 running up to form are quite low.
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